Real-Time Dst Model

This data is updated 1/2-hourly at the 0 and 30 minutes past the hour. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that real time Solar Wind data can be used to produce a simple model of Dst.
These data are NOT for publication use.

 The handling of ACE data gaps is incomplete.Use this data at your own risk.

General Description

Dst is a measure of the terrestrial ring current, given in nT.

Our Model works as follows:

Dst₀ is the time integrated influence of VBs, the induced electric field Ey. VBs is given in mV/m.

E₀ is a threshold value for VBs, below which there is no injection of energy to the ring current.

 P_dyn is the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure, in nPa.  Dst₀ is corrected for the motion of the magnetopause currents, which are influenced by  P_dyn

 The final Dst is what we expect to be measured.

We initialize our model using the Kyoto Near Real-Time Dst(t₀), thereafter ACE solar wind data and the equations above are used to calculate running estimates of Dst.

Want to Find Out More?

An explanation and evaluation of the real-time performance of this model is provided in From Research To Real-Time: Modeling and Forecasting the Ring Current [MS PowerPoint] [gifs]

This model is described in greater detail in:

• O'Brien, T. P. and R. L. McPherron. An Empirical Phase-Space Analysis of Ring Current Dynamics: Solar Wind Control of Injection and Decay. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7707, 2000. IGPP # 5232 [download draft]
• O'Brien, T. P. and R. L. McPherron. Forecasting the Ring Current Index Dst in Real Time. In press Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2000 (Special issue proceedings of Space Weather Week, 1999). IGPP # 5433 [download draft]

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