Real-Time Dst Prediction

UCLA Forecast and Kyoto Quick-Look Dst
Using Real-Time Solar Wind Data from the ACE Spacecraft

(What is Dst?)

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Real-Time Dst Plot at SWRI

Ascii File of Latest Prediction "AK2.txt"



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NOTES:

  • The Kyoto Quick-Look Dst is near Real-Time
  • The UCLA model uses upstream Solar Wind data to advance Dst to a forecast
  • This forecast is updated 1/2-hourly at 0 and 30 minutes past the hour.
  • The red line indicates the time the forecast was made.
  • The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that real time Solar Wind data can be used to produce a simple model of Dst.

    ADVISORIES:

  • These data have known problems and are NOT for publication use.
  • The handling of ACE data gaps is incomplete. Spurious data spikes may occur. Use this data at your own risk

    EVALUATIONS:

  • Evaluation on Latest Kyoto Quick-Look Dst
  • Evaluation on April 1999 (99-107) Magnetic Storm

    MORE INFORMATION:

  • Model Description
  • What is Dst?
  • Berkeley Space Science Lab Real-Time Dst Prediction
  • Kyoto Quick-Look Dst (This Month)
  • Other Space Weather Forecasts
    Prepared by Paul O'Brien, tpoiii@igpp.ucla.edu
    Space Science Center
    Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
    University of California, Los Angeles