IGPP Seminar Series

Tropical precipitation change under global warming

by Dr. David Neelin
IGPP & Atmospheric Sciences, UCLA


Climate model predictions of future changes in rainfall under global warming have been hampered by intermodel disagreement on the spatial pattern of these changes, and little has been known about physical mechanisms for the change. Aided by theory developed for interannual climate variability, we put forward physical mechanisms for large regional rainfall changes in the tropics---which include regions of drought as well as regions of increase. Analysis methods motivated by these mechanisms show that current models actually agree reasonably well on the amplitude of these changes, even while often disagreeing on the precise locations. In particular regions, such as the Caribbean/Central-America, models do yield measures of local agreement.
Tuesday, 23 May 2006
3845 Slichter Hall
Refreshments at 3:45 PM
Lecture at 4:00 PM